What this page is for
A forecast run generates the statistical Baseline — the starting-point number for every product and channel, calculated from sales history. This page lists your past runs, lets you start a new one, and schedules runs to happen automatically. The key idea: you don’t pick a forecasting model by hand. Spherecast tests several methods and auto-selects the best one per product and channel based on an error metric you choose.What you see
The run list shows one row per run:| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Id | The run’s reference number |
| Status | Done, Active, Ready for review, Creating validations…, Saving forecasts…, or Inactive |
| Triggered by | Scheduled or manual |
| Scope | Which products, channels, or groups the run covered |
| Created at | When it started |
| Duration | How long it took |
| Created by | The person, or “System” for scheduled runs |
Step by step: create a run
- Click New forecast run.
- Choose the scope — channels, products, groups, or categories.
- Set the time horizon in months.
- Set the confidence interval.
- Choose the error metric used to pick the best model.
- Choose which methods to test.
Error metrics
These measure how far a method’s forecast is from actual sales. Lower is better.| Metric | Full name |
|---|---|
| MAPE | Mean Absolute Percentage Error |
| MAE | Mean Absolute Error |
| RMSE | Root Mean Square Error |
| SMAPE | Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error |
Methods
| Group | Methods |
|---|---|
| AI | Time-GPT (an AI model trained on time-series data) |
| Machine Learning | LGBM, XGBoost, Linear Regression, CatBoost |
| Statistical | Moving Average (last 90 days), Exponential Smoothing (ETS), Historic Average, ADIDA, IMAPA, Croston Optimized |
Scheduling runs
Click Setup schedule to run forecasts weekly or monthly, with an optional auto push-down so agreed numbers flow into supply planning without a manual step. The page shows “Next run scheduled for …”.Sales-deviation alerts
A Sales-deviation alerts popover shows a count of Products to review — items whose last calendar month of sales deviates from the prior 3-month baseline beyond a threshold. Click Review & re-run forecasts to start a new run scoped to just those products. Thresholds are set per ABC class, each with a Threshold % and an Enabled toggle. These are the same “Sales deviation” items you’ll see on the Cockpit.Example
A planner runs a monthly forecast across all channels using MAPE. For a fast-moving beverage SKU, Spherecast picks Exponential Smoothing; for a slow, lumpy spare part it picks Croston Optimized. A week later the sales-deviation popover flags 14 products whose latest month jumped well above their recent baseline. The planner clicks Review & re-run forecasts to refresh just those 14.Tip: Turn on auto push-down only once your team trusts the Baseline. Until then, keep push-down manual so you can review before it reaches supply. See Building consensus and Exceptions.